The Hedgers' Ledger — 2026-06-10

The report dated June 2, 2026 shows four markets registering fresh positioning extremes against the three-year window, with the board splitting cleanly down the middle — two highs, two lows, and no ambiguity about which side owns the record territory: both fresh window records fall on opposite ends, the E-mini Nasdaq 100 pressing a commercial positioning high and Copper pressing a low. That the records land on contrary sides of the ledger in the same week, and that all four entries are new to this report, gives the board a hard, stretched quality — commercials leaning away from equities and crude on one rail while pulling back sharply from copper and soybean oil on the other. When the tape sets records simultaneously at both extremes, the prudent reader notes the tension and waits; the resolution, when it comes, will announce itself plainly.

Market	Side	Percentile	New
E-mini Nasdaq 100	▲ HIGH	100th	New
Copper	▼ LOW	1st	New
WTI Crude Oil	▲ HIGH	99th	New
Soybean Oil	▼ LOW	4th	New

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E-mini Nasdaq 100 — commercials at a 3-year HIGH (fresh record)

Commercial Net sits at the 100th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net buyers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: +13,812 contracts (as of 2026-06-02). New this week.

One caveat worth flagging: the positioning here reads bullish, but the spread indicator is pointing firmly the other way — the term structure is rolling over to the downside even as the commercials sit at a record long. When the hedgers say one thing and the structure says another, the disagreement is itself the signal: it hints that the advance may be hollow, that the up-move is being held up by something other than genuine demand for forward supply. A record-long commercial book on its own looks like conviction; set against a structure that is sliding, it looks more like a move that has not yet proven it is real.

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Copper — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -114,904 contracts (as of 2026-06-02). New this week.

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WTI Crude Oil — commercials at a 3-year HIGH

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 99th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net buyers. Net: +358,016 contracts (as of 2026-06-02). New this week.

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Soybean Oil — commercials at a 3-year LOW

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 4th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. Net: -235,283 contracts (as of 2026-06-02). New this week.