The Hedgers' Ledger — 2026-08-08
Weekly COT extremes from the commercial book · CFTC report 2026-08-04 · 3-year window · Data: ChartHorizon
The week of 4 August 2026 presents a board that leans decidedly against the dollar and toward paper assets and the metals. Four markets sit at positioning highs within their three-year window — the 10-Year T-Note, the E-mini Nasdaq 100, Silver, and Platinum — while the Dollar Index, the E-mini Dow, and Cotton #2 press to positioning lows; the T-Note and Nasdaq 100 on the high side and the Dollar Index on the low side each set fresh window records. Six of the seven markets tracked here are new entries this week, which is itself a fact worth noting — the tape does not often reprice this many books at once, and when the records cluster on opposite ends of the same ledger, the patient man watches to see which side yields first.
| Market | Side | Percentile | New |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year U.S. T-Note | ▲ HIGH | 100th | |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100 | ▲ HIGH | 100th | New |
| US Dollar Index | ▼ LOW | 1st | New |
| E-mini Dow ($5) | ▼ LOW | 1st | New |
| Cotton #2 | ▼ LOW | 2nd | New |
| Silver | ▲ HIGH | 97th | New |
| Platinum | ▲ HIGH | 96th | New |
10-Year U.S. T-Note — commercials at a 3-year HIGH (fresh record)
Commercial Net sits at the 100th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net buyers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: +995,416 contracts (as of 2026-08-04).
E-mini Nasdaq 100 — commercials at a 3-year HIGH (fresh record)
Commercial Net sits at the 100th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net buyers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: +15,442 contracts (as of 2026-08-04). New this week.
US Dollar Index — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)
Commercial Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -24,626 contracts (as of 2026-08-04). New this week.
E-mini Dow ($5) — commercials at a 3-year LOW
Commercial Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. Net: -25,579 contracts (as of 2026-08-04). New this week.
Cotton #2 — commercials at a 3-year LOW
Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 2nd percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. Net: -140,793 contracts (as of 2026-08-04). New this week.
Silver — commercials at a 3-year HIGH
Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 97th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) remain net short here, as producers structurally are, but less short than at almost any point in three years. The move is short-covering, not accumulation. Net: -13,080 contracts (as of 2026-08-04). New this week.
Platinum — commercials at a 3-year HIGH
Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 96th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) remain net short here, as producers structurally are, but less short than at almost any point in three years. The move is short-covering, not accumulation. Net: -11,155 contracts (as of 2026-08-04). New this week.
Informational and educational only — not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss; seasonal and positioning signals do not guarantee future results. Signals and charts: ChartHorizon (local end-of-day data).