The Hedgers' Ledger — 2026-08-30

The hedger book dated 25 August 2026 puts five markets at a three-year positioning extreme, and four of them are fresh records for the window: Lean Hogs at a positioning high, Corn, Sugar #11 and Cotton #2 each at a positioning low, with Chicago Wheat on that same lower shelf at the 2nd percentile without a record of its own. The lean is four to one toward the low end — the commercial book has been selling into grains and softs while it covers in hogs. It did not all land at once: Cotton has held the bottom percentile since the 11 August report, Sugar, Wheat and Lean Hogs joined a week later, and Corn is the newcomer. A board this one-sided says something about direction and nothing about timing; the hedger is early by trade, and early looks exactly like wrong until it doesn’t.

Market	Side	Percentile	New
Lean Hogs	▲ HIGH	100th
Corn	▼ LOW	1st
Sugar #11	▼ LOW	1st
Cotton #2	▼ LOW	1st
Wheat (Chicago SRW)	▼ LOW	2nd

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Lean Hogs — commercials at a 3-year HIGH (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 100th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have covered shorts toward the least-short end of the window; the book is still net short. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -9,008 contracts (as of 2026-08-25).

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Corn — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -720,854 contracts (as of 2026-08-25).

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Sugar #11 — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -279,125 contracts (as of 2026-08-25).

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Cotton #2 — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -170,160 contracts (as of 2026-08-25).

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Wheat (Chicago SRW) — commercials at a 3-year LOW

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 2nd percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. Net: -73,448 contracts (as of 2026-08-25).

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The hedging program

Where each market’s tracked COT net sits inside its own trailing six-month range — above the midpoint of that range or below it. This is the same positioning read at close quarters, and it answers a different question from the extremes above: a book can sit at a three-year low and still have been working higher for six months. What follows is only what MOVED — the markets that crossed that midpoint with this week’s report.

15 programs read above the midpoint of their own trailing six-month range this week, 24 below. Two crossed it with this report — Ethereum and RBOB Gasoline, each from above the midpoint to below it.

Market	Turned	6-month program
Ethereum	from above the midpoint	▼ below midpoint
RBOB Gasoline	from above the midpoint	▼ below midpoint

Ethereum — the program turns bearish

In the CFTC report of 2026-08-25, Leveraged Funds Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits below that midpoint, where the previous report still had it above. It cleared that midpoint by 0.4% of the window’s own range — a crossing on the definition, and a coin-flip in fact. The book tracked here is leveraged funds — a speculative cohort, not the hedger side.

RBOB Gasoline — the program turns bearish

In the CFTC report of 2026-08-25, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits below that midpoint, where the previous report still had it above. It cleared that midpoint by 2.7% of the window’s own range.