The Hedgers' Ledger — 2026-08-16

The report dated 11 August 2026 shows commercial hedgers pressed to three-year positioning highs in the E-mini Nasdaq 100, the 10-Year T-Note, and Platinum, while the opposing pole — Cotton #2, the Dollar Index, and the E-mini Dow — sits at three-year lows; the board is not merely leaning, it is leaning hard to both extremes simultaneously, with fresh window records established in the Nasdaq and in Cotton. When a tape produces record hedger crowding on opposite ends of the ledger in the same week, the patient man notes it and waits — the line of least resistance, when it finally declares itself, rarely does so quietly.

Market	Side	Percentile	New
E-mini Nasdaq 100	▲ HIGH	100th
Cotton #2	▼ LOW	1st
US Dollar Index	▼ LOW	1st
10-Year U.S. T-Note	▲ HIGH	97th
E-mini Dow ($5)	▼ LOW	3rd
Platinum	▲ HIGH	96th

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E-mini Nasdaq 100 — commercials at a 3-year HIGH (fresh record)

Commercial Net sits at the 100th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net buyers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: +17,475 contracts (as of 2026-08-11).

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Cotton #2 — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -149,999 contracts (as of 2026-08-11).

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US Dollar Index — commercials at a 3-year LOW

Commercial Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. Net: -23,428 contracts (as of 2026-08-11).

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10-Year U.S. T-Note — commercials at a 3-year HIGH

Commercial Net sits at the 97th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net buyers. Net: +914,011 contracts (as of 2026-08-11).

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E-mini Dow ($5) — commercials at a 3-year LOW

Commercial Net sits at the 3rd percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. Net: -24,810 contracts (as of 2026-08-11).

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Platinum — commercials at a 3-year HIGH

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 96th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have covered shorts toward the least-short end of the window; the book is still net short. Net: -11,400 contracts (as of 2026-08-11).