The Hedgers' Ledger — 2026-09-05

The commercial book dated 1 September 2026 leans heavily to one side: five markets sit at positioning lows against the three-year range, one sits at a high, and four of those five lows are fresh window records. Soybeans join the low side this week for the first time. A board this lopsided — four simultaneous record extremes clustered on the same flank, with the lone outlier confined to Lean Hogs — is not something one sees in an ordinary week, and the tape has a way of resolving crowded rooms in the direction that causes the most pain to the most people.

Market	Side	Percentile	New
Corn	▼ LOW	1st
Wheat (Chicago SRW)	▼ LOW	1st
Sugar #11	▼ LOW	1st
Cotton #2	▼ LOW	1st
Lean Hogs	▲ HIGH	99th
Soybeans	▼ LOW	2nd	New

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Corn — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -800,143 contracts (as of 2026-09-01).

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Wheat (Chicago SRW) — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -102,406 contracts (as of 2026-09-01).

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Sugar #11 — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -302,362 contracts (as of 2026-09-01).

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Cotton #2 — commercials at a 3-year LOW (fresh record)

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -178,611 contracts (as of 2026-09-01).

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Lean Hogs — commercials at a 3-year HIGH

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 99th percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have covered shorts toward the least-short end of the window; the book is still net short. Net: -9,595 contracts (as of 2026-09-01).

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Soybeans — commercials at a 3-year LOW

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 2nd percentile of its ~3-year range — the commercials (hedgers, the “smart-money” side) have been heavy net sellers. Net: -337,308 contracts (as of 2026-09-01). New this week.

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The hedging program

Where each market’s tracked COT net sits inside its own trailing six-month range — above the midpoint of that range or below it. This is the same positioning read at close quarters, and it answers a different question from the extremes above: a book can sit at a three-year low and still have been working higher for six months. What follows is only what MOVED — the markets that crossed that midpoint with this week’s report.

17 programs read above the midpoint of their own trailing six-month range this week, 22 below. Four crossed it with this report — Brent Crude Oil from below to above, Soybean Oil from above to below, Japanese Yen from below to above and Ethereum from below to above.

Market	Turned	6-month program
Brent Crude Oil	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint
Soybean Oil	from above the midpoint	▼ below midpoint
Japanese Yen	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint
Ethereum	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint

Brent Crude Oil — the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-01, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 4.3% of the window’s own range.

Soybean Oil — the program turns bearish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-01, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits below that midpoint, where the previous report still had it above. It cleared that midpoint by 12.4% of the window’s own range.

Japanese Yen — the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-01, Commercial Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 7.7% of the window’s own range.

Ethereum — the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-01, Leveraged Funds Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 30.3% of the window’s own range. The book tracked here is leveraged funds — a speculative cohort, not the hedger side.